Just think you can anyway

Note: This article was written for the Carolina Huddle fan site, and originally appeared in their forums here.

Carolina welcomes the defending Super Bowl champs to Bank of America Stadium this week. The Panthers are fresh off a bye while the Colts are playing their second straight road game on a short week.

The Colts have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. They’re led by one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and sport a balanced offense that’s ranked third in the league in scoring and total yards.

On defense the Colts field a disciplined group that generally doesn’t make mistakes. They have tremendous speed and are outstanding in coverage. Indianapolis plays a cover two type of defense, and are first in the league in pass defense, third in yards surrendered, and sixth in points allowed.

Here are the units the Colts will bring to BofA Stadium on Sunday:

Quarterback
Peyton Manning is arguably the best quarterback playing the game right now, and is the current leader for career passer rating among active QBs. Manning is currently putting up over 250 yards per game and has thrown 11 TD passes versus only three interceptions. He is known for his audibles and ability to keep a defense on it’s heels. Manning is not so much a playmaker as he is an expert tactician; he knows every trick in the book for wearing down a defense and makes all of them look easy. He also rarely makes mistakes, which just makes defending him that much harder.

Homer says: “Manning is a great player, but he needs a team effort to show it. Under pressure he can be just as ordinary as anyone. The key here will be Peppers and Jenkins, if they can bring pressure from the line then Manning won’t be able to pick the Panthers apart. The Panthers also need to control the clock and try and keep Manning from finding his rhythm. Not easy, but can be done.”

Hater says: “This is the original laser-rocket-arm QB… Manning gets rid of the ball too fast for the Panthers to get pressure on him. He also manages the game well enough to keep the defense guessing and ineffective. The big question on Sunday will be what happens more often, a Manning touchdown pass or a flag on Jenkins for jumping offsides.”

Running Backs
Joseph Addai (100 carries, 492 yards, 5 TDs) shoulders the primary running duties for the Colts. Standing at six feet and 215 pounds, Addai is a straight-ahead runner who also excels at catching passes out of the backfield. He has excellent speed and does well after contact. Kenton Keith (66 carries, 311 yards) backs up Addai and is more of a cutback runner who is good at picking up the blitz.

Homer says: “Addai is good, not great. He gets a big benefit from the distraction Manning provides. We have a line that does real well against straight-ahead runners, and our linebackers have the speed to plug holes as they open. This one is on Morgan, and if he returns Sunday we should be able to contain their running game.”

Hater says: “It’s not fair that the best quarterback in the league lines up next to a running back who’s good for five yards per carry. The Panthers aren’t exactly lighting it up this year in rushing defense (they’re 18th in the league), and Addai will probably go over 100 easy. What’s worse is his ability to catch out of the backfield. And when he gets tired they can go to Keith with no drop-off at all. Not a pretty thought…”

Wide Receivers/Tight End
The Colts receiving corps ranks as one of the best in the NFL. Eight-time pro-bowler Marvin Harrison (20 rec, 247 yards, 1 TD) and 2006 pro-bowl teammate Reggie Wayne (37 rec, 500 yards, 4 TDs) are the only wide receiver tandem in NFL history to catch 75 receptions and 1,000 yards in 3 straight seasons. Tight End Dallas Clark (30 rec, 366 yards, 6TDs) leads the Colts in touchdowns.

Homer says: “The Panthers have already faced some pretty good receivers in games against St. Louis, Houston, and Arizona. The key will be quick pressure at the line to keep Manning from delivering the ball well. The Indy receivers are good, but they aren’t big playmakers and depend on Manning getting the ball to them in the right place. If that gets disrupted, coverage gets a lot easier.”

Hater says: “This group keeps the defense honest and allows Addai to be so effective. The Colts’ receivers demand way too much attention to stack the line. Gamble and Lucas can’t match up here, and we’re basically pinning our hopes on Deke Cooper and Chris Harris to keep this game from becoming a rout. Dallas Clark has the potential to be a monster if Davis is covering him, and if Indy uses Clark a lot then don’t expect to see their punter much.”

Offensive Line
Indianapolis starts a quick and athletic offensive line that not only excels in protection, but is also helping to produce a rushing attack that averages 141.8 yards per game. They excel in the stretch handoff play, and their first step is the same whether it’s a run or a pass. That prevents the opposing linebackers from getting a bead on the play and helps the running game and play-action. Left Tackle Tony Ugoh is a rookie, but has quickly picked up the scheme and does a good job protecting Manning’s blind side. On the right side is seven year man Ryan Diem. Guards Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott flank pro-bowl center Jeff Saturday. So far in 2007, they have allowed only five sacks.

Homer says: “This is the same line that Manning’s thrown under the bus time and again, right? Oh, wait, it’s the same line with a ROOKIE starting on his blind side. I mean a ROOKIE who’s not 100%! This should be the game where McClover finally shines. Don’t expect the Colts to be able to push our defense around here at all, they’re just not big enough and our defensive line has too much experience to bite on their fakes. Advantage, Panthers by a lot here.”

Hater says: “141.8 rushing yards per game and five sacks on the season. If that’s not good, how would you define it?”Defensive Line
Superstar Dwight Freeney (15 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) and Robert Mathis (10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble) apply pressure from the defensive end positions, while tackles Raheem Brock (15 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and Ed Johnson (20 tackles, 1 sack) clog the middle. The Colts have been good against the run, allowing only 107.3 yards per game, and bring a decent if not overpowering pass rush. Freeny is a regular pro bowl selection who is considered as one of the best at his position in the NFL.

Homer says: “The Colts are right in the middle of the pack in rushing defense. They give up 4.2 yards per carry, which is more than their opponents have averaged against other teams. They’re 19th in sacks too. This group seems more about reputation than production. The key to the Panthers’ success will be their ability to run, and based on the defensive line that’s not only possible, it’s all but certain.”

Hater says: “The only reason no one runs on the Colts is because they’re too busy throwing the ball in an effort to get back into the game. The Panthers might be able to run, but when you’re down by three touchdowns who does that? Oh, and the idea of Foster running through the line? Well, he might make it a couple times but the way they strip don’t expect him to be carrying the ball when he pops out the other side.”

Linebackers
The Colts start Gary Bracket (41 tackles, .5 sacks, 1 INT) at the middle linebacker position, with Freddie Keiaho (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Tyjuan Hagler (24 tackles) on the outside. This is a fast and solid group, although it’s arguably the weakest group in the Colt’s defense.

Homer says: “When the Panthers aren’t running the ball, they’ll get a lot of help from Jeff King, who should excel against Hagler. Hagler’s strength isn’t coverage and he’s a little undersized at only six feet tall. The rest of the linebackers are quick, so the Panthers need to run north/south and not try to stretch the defense. The good news is that none of them are particularly big, and can be worn down by a steady running game.”

Hater says: “The Colts’ LBs may be small but they get to the ball in a hurry and deliver a nice pop when they do. This is where the running game is stopped on Sunday.”

Defensive Backs
The Colts’ secondary is characterized by their speed across the board. Pro-Bowl Strong Safety Bob Sanders (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) is the star of the defensive backs. Undersized by NFL standards, he still flies across the field to punish opposing ball carriers. Free Safety Antoine Bethea (35 tackles, 1 INT) has excellent speed and agility and complements Sanders’ style well. Kelvin Hayden (41 tackles, 1 INT) lines up at the left cornerback position, while Marlin Jackson
(47 tackles, 1 INT) lines up on the right side.

Homer says: “This unit is talented, but like all cover two defenses they give up the middle. Carrstaverde should be able to dink and dunk his way down the field with short routes, and once they’re lulled to sleep by that expect a long one to Smith late in the game.”

Hater says: “Bob Sanders is Steve Smith on defense. He’s the real playmaker for them, and hits so hard and so fast that sometimes it looks like there’s two of him out there. He also lines up close to the line and keys on the run in a flash–so don’t look for much action from Carolina there. And the way this group as a whole hits? Steve Smith aside, look for a whole bunch of alligator arms out there on Sunday.”

Prognosis

Homer says: This is the textbook definition of a trap game. Next week the Colts play the Patriots, and last Monday they had a tough game against a tough division rival. In between they have the Panthers, a NFC team that looks like it’s injured and struggling. The Colts are one of the best teams in the league, but they do it more with great role players and solid execution than by overwhelming you with sheer talent. That’s going to work in the Panthers’ favor on Sunday.

When the Panthers have the ball they HAVE to run it, and run it between the tackles. The Indy linebackers will wear down as the game goes on, and the need to control the clock and limit Manning’s touches is critical. The Panthers should work several short passes into the mix, and be content to make their yardage in 3-5 yard chunks. Late in the game the runs that started as two and three yard gains will suddenly be five and six yarders, and that’s when all those short passes will set Smitty up for a long one. The Panthers need to bring a great gameplan with them, because they can’t afford to punt more than two or three times.

When the Colts have the ball the Panthers will need to trust their safeties and blitz hard. Manning needs to feel the pressure enough to keep him from perfect placement on his passes. If that happens, then Gamble and Lucas can keep Harrison and Wayne in check. If the center of the defensive line holds and Addai is forced to run to the outside then that should do it for their running game. It’s all going to be about pressuring Manning and keeping him off balance.

The Colts are going to expect an easy one, and won’t like feeling like they’re in a real fight. The Panthers haven’t won at home yet, because they’ve been waiting to really show the fans something. This week they play hard, physical, and aggressive on their way to a very impressive win.

Panthers 27, Colts 24

Hater says: This has all the makings for a real embarrassment. This season the Panthers have played with some flashes of greatness, but they’re wildly inconsistent and are playing one of the most consistently good teams in the NFL. Look at the Indianapolis/Tampa Bay game to get an idea of what will happen here. The Colts’ offense was just dominating against a much better defense than Carolina’s, despite missing five starters.

When the Panthers have the ball they’ll find a big clog in the middle thanks to the emergence of Ed Johnson as a run stuffer. The few times they do get through the DTs Foster or Williams will get their bell rung by Sanders’ flying across the field or Gary Bracket plugging the hole. The Colts defense is fast. The only way to beat them is be physical, and the Panthers just don’t have the personnel to do that this year. Oh, and just to add to the Panthers’ woes, David Carr might start.

When the Colts have the ball it will just look bad. Addai can run, makes good cuts and knows which direction the end zone is. He may not get 100 on the ground, but he and Keith will combine for at least 150. Manning will pick apart our soft interior with ease, and as soon as the secondary makes an inevitable mistake, he’ll exploit it for a big gain. The only stat the Panthers will lead the Colts in is punting yardage.

It’s not going to be pretty, but maybe it will be a much-needed wake up call for the Panthers. At least the game film will be a teaching lesson for Fox to show what good discipline can do for a team.

Colts 42, Panthers 12.